Section 2
How Lot Sizing Compounds the Risk
Percentage-based lot sizing on a shared balance creates a feedback loop where each EA's losses shrink every other EA's next trade, compounding losses faster than individual backtests predict.
It gets worse when your EAs use percentage-based lot sizing — which most modern EAs do.
When EA-A risks 2% of the account balance per trade, and EA-B also risks 2%, you don't have 2% risk. You have potentially 4% risk if both take trades simultaneously. Add three more EAs, and a single bad session can see 10% of your balance at risk across open positions.
The Balance Feedback Loop
With percentage-based lot sizing on a shared balance, there's a vicious feedback loop:
- EA-A loses trades, reducing the account balance
- EA-B calculates its next lot size based on the reduced balance
- When EA-B wins, it wins less (smaller lots due to reduced balance)
- When EA-B loses, both EAs are compounding losses on a shrinking account
This feedback loop doesn't exist in individual backtests because each EA sees an independent balance. The moment you put them on the same account, the dynamics change completely.
Warning: Backtesting each EA individually and adding up the profits does NOT give you an accurate picture of portfolio performance. Shared-balance effects can reduce net returns by 15-30% compared to naive expectations.
Fixed Lot vs. Percentage-Based: Which is Safer?
Fixed lot sizing avoids the feedback loop, but introduces a different problem: lot sizes don't scale down during drawdowns. If you're running 0.1 lots on each of five EAs, that's 0.5 lots of total exposure regardless of whether your account has grown or shrunk.
The better approach is portfolio-level risk management: each EA gets a fraction of the total risk budget, and you adjust lot sizes based on how many EAs are active and what the overall portfolio exposure is.
Risk budgeting per EA
Total account risk per trade: 2%
Number of EAs: 5
Risk per EA per trade: 2% ÷ 5 = 0.4%
With correlation adjustment:
If avg correlation = 0.5, effective EAs ≈ 3.3
Adjusted risk per EA: 2% ÷ 3.3 = 0.6%